President Donald Trump continues to politically struggle in an economy marked by rising prices caused by his Iran war — and even many of his fellow conservatives see the problem.
“Republicans could face a tsunami election in November if inflation continues to stay high” along with high gas prices explained Stephen Moore, a conservative economist who has advised Mr. Trump, to The New York Times’ Tony Romm and Ben Casselman on Sunday. The journalists broke down a string of bad economic news that has recently beset the administration: Consumer prices over the past month rose higher than they have in three years and outpaced workers’ wages; business costs have increased at their highest rate in four years; and consumer confidence this month fell to an all-time low.
“At the heart of matter is the war with Iran, which sent the average gallon of gasoline to about $4.52 nationally, according to AAA,” the Times explained. “That is a more than 40 percent jump from a year ago, an uptick that has cut across the global economy, affecting everything from the cost of workers’ daily commutes to the prices of goods at grocery stores.”
Despite these concerns, Trump recently told reporters that “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation.” This approach is worrying even some of Trump’s fellow conservatives about their party’s political prospects.
Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, told the Times that Trump’s attitude toward the economy has been baffling.
“I’ve been struck, even before the Iran war, with the degree to which President Trump is making the same mistakes as President Biden,” Strain explained. “We’ve had two presidents in a row who have seen consumer prices going up on their watch, who have dismissed those price increases out of hand as temporary, transitory, not real in some measure.”
He added that both President Joe Biden and Trump responded to their faltering economies with a strategy of having “politically chosen to downplay the importance of price increases in the lives of voter. There have been an astonishing number of own goals in the last year and a half.”
While Trump and his supporters defend the poor economy by arguing the suffering will be offset by his recent tax cuts, and argue that certain economic metrics remain strong, the Times reported that “that strength is being driven, at least partly, by wealthy households, which have been insulated from economic headwinds by a steadily rising stock market. Lower- and middle-income households are the ones bearing the brunt of slower wage growth and rising prices. Larger tax refunds have helped many families offset higher costs, but that effect is fading.”
Quoting Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner, they added that “there is a bit of a buffer from increased tax returns. The consumer has a bit of a buffer in the near term, but the longer gas prices remain high, the more precarious the situation could get.”
Indeed, even Trump’s Christian base is being harmed by Trump’s economy.
“When President Donald Trump took office for the second time,” wrote Christianity Today earlier this month, “the average tax on imported goods was 2.4 percent, according to Yale University’s Budget Lab. Since then, tariff rates have stretched as high as 28 percent. Last month, they hovered around an average effective rate of 11.8 percent. Tariff rates have fluctuated with the president’s whims. Some tariffs have targeted specific products: steel, aluminum, timber, and more recently, pharmaceuticals. Other tariffs have hit nearly all imported goods.”
Quoting Christian-inspired product producer Erica Campbell, Christianity Today added that “I think for a lot of small businesses — and I suspect most Christian businesses fall under this — we’re not working with huge, massive amounts of corporate money.”