Fitch Ratings says Hungary’s new government will face serious challenges, including weak growth, and rising public debt, even as the party’s victory could ease EU tensions and reduce institutional conflict.
Hungarian economic news portals note that the economy has essentially stagnated since 2023, with average annual growth at just 0.1% compared with 4.2% between 2015 and 2019, reflecting weak external conditions, reduced state investment, and declining productivity and competitiveness.
Fitch forecasts GDP growth of 2% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, supported first by pre‑election fiscal loosening and later by recovering investments and new export capacity in the automotive and battery sectors. The budget deficit reached 4.7% of GDP in 2025, far above the original 3.7% target, and could rise to 5.6% in 2026 before easing to 5% in 2027, while public debt increased from 73.3% of GDP in 2023 to 74.6% in 2025.
Fitch estimates the pre‑election fiscal package cost 2.1% of GDP and warns that its largely permanent measures will complicate post‑election consolidation efforts. The agency stresses that the new government must present a credible medium‑term fiscal plan and rebuild policy credibility to unlock frozen EU funds and stabilize the economy.
The rating agency is slated to review its ranking for Hungary in early June. S&P will make its own assessment on April 17, with the last of the big three, Moody’s, due to make its review in November.